Demographic Projections Workshop

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Instructors: André Cyr, Hubert Denis, Eric Caron-Malenfant, Statistics Canada

The workshop will concentrate on statistical methods, the cohort-component method in particular, for providing estimates and projections of population and its changes taking into account vital events, and international and inter-provincial migration. By combining data from different sources and by applying these methods, a variety of policy relevant questions on aging and declining of population can be addressed. A micro-simulation approach to analysis of different population scenarios will be explained and demonstrated. The illustrations will be based on data from the Atlantic region and more specifically Newfoundland.

The workshop will be in English with handouts in both, English and French.

Contents:

Introduction

Demography in an official statistical agency: An example of Statistics Canada’s Demography Division

• Usual Mandate
• Demographic Estimates and Projections: why are we doing them ?
• Typical Products of Official Demography

The Cohort-Component Method and sources of information

• The Cohort-Component Method
• Sources of information
• Births and Deaths : Vital Statistics
• Interprovincial migration : Childcare Benefit Program and Income Tax data
• Immigration : CIC data
• Non-permanent Residents : CIC data
• Emigration
• Returning emigrants
• Net temporary emigrants
• Estimates
• Projections

Methodological developments to come

• On-going improvements
• Microsimulation

Presentation of the Case Study

• Short demographic history of Newfoundland and Labrador
• The Case Study

Period of questions / Conclusion

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